Modelling the future Dutch COPD population from diagnosis till death

A new COPD population model gives detailed information about the future burden of COPD in the Netherlands.


It has been shown to be a useful instrument for policy making.



The severity of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) varies from mild to very severe. As the use of health care is strongly related to disease severity, the total burden of COPD for society is dependent on the COPD severity distribution in the patient population.


To provide health care policy makers with detailed data about the future burden of COPD for the Netherlands, Martine Hoogendoorn (Institute for Medical Technology Assessment, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Netherlands) and her American and Dutch colleagues developed a model that simulates the developments in the Dutch COPD population over time.


Developments occur due to changes in the sex- and age distribution of the general population, changes in the percentage of smokers and ex-smokers and progression of the disease.


The model estimates the number of Dutch COPD patients by disease severity for future years, and can also be used to estimate the effect of cost-effectiveness of various disease management interventions, including smoking cessation.


Between 2000 and 2025 the model projects an increase of the total number of Dutch COPD patients from 306 to 494 thousand. The increase for women is higher than for men. The percentages of mild and very severe COPD patients are projected to increase, while the percentages of moderate and severe patients decrease.


Mean costs per patient are ??? 915. The total health care costs for COPD are projected to rise from 280 to 495 million Euros, with the highest increase in very severe COPD.


The authors also show that smoking cessation therapies for COPD patients are cost-effective. This detailed information about the future burden of COPD in the Netherlands is useful for policy making, both at the governmental and institutional level.



The European Respiratory Journal is the peer-reviewed scientific publication of the European Respiratory Society (more than 7,000 specialists in lung diseases and respiratory medicine in Europe, the United States and Australia).


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